Jürgen Kocka (#1: What was, what is, and what can be done?)

(FU Berlin)

On comparison, contextualization and causation

What can a historian of modern Europe contribute to understanding the present situation in the US?  I select three examples.

1. Presently, comparisons between Germany in the 1920s/30s and the US in the 2020s are frequent. I am particularly impressed by the weakness of resistance, then and now. One is disillusioned by the quick adjustment of so many institutions, groups and individuals actively supporting or passively tolerating the new distribution of power after the takeover by the Nazis in early 1933, and the recent coming to power of Trump and his team. Persons familiar with the East German dictatorship up to 1989 make the point that severe repression and subjection frequently started with the anxiety, the self-censorship, and the double talk of individuals in public. They discover similarities when reading about what happens in the US right now.  Such comparisons do not lead to predictions. They should rather be seen as warnings about what may come out of presently visible developments in the US, but need not if taken seriously.  
2. Most economic experts regard Trump’s passion for tariffs as self-defeating for the American and as destructive for the world economy. Historians are trained in considering different contexts and can offer an alternative interpretation: What appears to be foolish in economic terms can be functional and purposeful politically. The policies of tariffs intended by Trump will tremendously enhance the president’s power in that he can grant or refuse exemptions to single branches, specific regions, or individual firms – in exchange for their political support.  Trump’s policies of tariffs will be instrumental for centralizing political power and converting the political system into a more authoritarian one.
3. If one wants to explain what emerges in the US right now it is not enough to look into the US. Rather, one needs to recognize that the rise of Trumpism is just a part, though a dramatic, influential, and perhaps decisive part, of a broader bundle of global trends, which need to be analyzed in transnational categories.  In the second decade of this century something has happened that terminated or decisively weakened previous decade-long trends towards a more liberal, more democratic, more cosmopolitan, and more enlightened world based on rules and non-violent conflict solution. Opposite trends became increasingly dominant which have led to more fragmentation, xenophobia, nationalism, populism and authoritarianism on the right and the left, to the decline of liberal-democratic principles, to deglobalization, culture wars and military conflicts. In different forms and with varying success, such processes can be observed at many places of the world, certainly in Europe. Trumpism in the US and the rising right-extreme AfD in Germany share many traits and support each other, to mention just one example. 

A tectonic shift is taking place. In order to explain it and help confronting it politically it is necessary to take into account basic challenges of the present time like the structural change of the public space nearly everywhere, or the rise of non-Western powers in the world arena. And it is necessary to admit that the multifaceted progress we have experienced between the mid-20^th century and the early 21^st century brought not only tremendous gains for many but also losses to others, i.e. marginalization, impositions and excessive demands to which present-day anger, protests and regressions react. While progress during the second half of the 20^th century was partly US-led and made America greater than ever before, present-day chaos and turmoil are again strongly nourished by the US. By retreating from applying soft power, reducing international cooperation, and turning into a fortified power without allies and friends America makes itself small again under Trump. It needs a broad historical analysis to understand the framework in which the present American crisis takes place.

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