Paul Nolte (#4: On Transatlantic Alliances)

(FU Berlin)

Like many German scholars, I have long held a deep regard for the United States well beyond academic concerns. The aggressive stance of the second Trump administration over the past four months has come as a personal shock. It is a relief to be able to engage in dialogue in a forum like this.

Early on, Christina and I agreed that I would speak on the transformations, and perhaps deformations, of democracy as well as the broader challenges facing Western societies in the 21st century. In the five minutes allotted, I will address these issues with a focus on transatlantic relations not only because of today’s theme, but also because I firmly believe what we are witnessing in Washington should not be framed solely as an American problem nor should it be reduced to a narrative of increasing divergence between America and Europe. This is not simply an issue of “us versus them”, or of “good versus evil.” For instance, consider the recent elections in Poland, Romania, and Portugal.

Rather, Trump’s presidency compels Europeans, especially those who identify as liberal in a broader sense, to look into a mirror. What they might see reflected is not only their own populist and authoritarian tendencies, but also the deeper challenges facing liberal democracies on both sides of the Atlantic challenges that we may not have adequately assessed in academia or addressed through politics.

Exactly four months after January 20th, my initial fears of a full-scale Machtergreifung have somewhat receded, fears I personally shared, and that Jeffrey Herf among others articulated publicly. Instead, what stands out over recent weeks is the degree of disruption, contingency, and chaos that Trump, together with figures like J.D. Vance and Elon Musk, have introduced into institutions once governed by proven norms and regularities. What we are observing is a pattern of erratic politics in both style and substance combined with an unprecedented level of rudeness and vulgarity in the history of democratic governance, perhaps unmatched even since before Pearl Harbor. If a hypothetical Chancellor Lansky had shocked the world by imposing absurd tariffs on April 2, only to revoke them days later, that would not align with any classical model of governance. These behaviors were never foreseen in the typologies inherited from classical antiquity, not even Aristotle’s playbook so to speak.

The Trump administration warrants a new term that captures its essential characteristics: erratic, spontaneous, rogue, and inconsistent. I suggest we refer to this as aristocracy, a form of autocracy distinct from traditional authoritarianism. By contrast, this moment highlights a quality of classical liberal democracy that we may have underappreciated: its commitment to rules, to consistency, and to a reliable political course often shaped by long-term ideological programs. This is what I would call civilized governance, a concept akin but not identical to “good governance” or a “rules-based international order.” It includes the rule of law but also rests on predictability, process, and mutual respect, including among heads of state. In this way, it connects to what Niklas Luhmann once called “legitimation by procedure.”

So, would the solution simply be to reject aristocracy and restore civilized governance, with America gradually becoming “more European” again? My answer, as you may suspect, is no. The emergence of aristocracy highlights a deeper dilemma for Western democracies: their growing inability to enact swift and significant change. In the long post-1945 period of peace and stability, they have structurally accumulated layers of inertia. Bureaucracies have expanded, yet long-standing calls for administrative reform have largely resulted in more of the same.

Trump, for better or worse, has moved in the opposite direction, dismantling federal agencies and abruptly terminating officials. Take another example: the broad liberal and even postcolonial consensus that Western foreign aid has reached a dead end. Has anything changed? Not really. And then Trump arrives, upending the existing framework. In conclusion, the Trump administration challenges Western democracies to confront their own structural conservatism and their difficulty in adapting without abandoning the principles of civilized governance. These are issues shared on both sides of the Atlantic, making it all the more essential to uphold and strengthen transatlantic alliances.

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